June 30, 2025

Actuaries seek better data on troubling age 80+ mortality trend

Regulators and actuaries are considering a data change to better account for a puzzling mortality degradation in individuals ages 80 and older.

The Life Mortality Improvement Subgroup of the Mortality and Longevity Oversight Advisory Council wants to switch from general population data to insured population data. The two datasets are fairly similar up until age 80, when insured population mortality improvement sharply drops.

Mortality improvement rates represent how much mortality rates are expected to decline over time. They’re typically expressed as a percentage reduction in mortality per year and are widely used in life insurance, pensions, and actuarial science to estimate future longevity.

“We would expect that continued medical advances would result in at least some improvement at these ages, but we are actually seeing small rates of deterioration,” the subgroup wrote in a request for comment. “One suggested possibility is that this is due to the impact of the life settlements market on insured data, leading to decreased lapses at older insured ages and therefore more impaired lives in this segment of the population.”

Represented by Marianne Purushotham, corporate vice president for statistical analysis and modeling for LIMRA, the subgroup briefed members of the Life Actuarial Task Force Thursday.

The proposal received one comment letter, from the American Council for Life Insurers. Brian Bayerle, chief life actuary for ACLI, said the trade group supports using the credible data that is the “most relevant.”

“We would be concerned if there was an effort to go down a path of just taking the worst of the two between the general population and the injured population [data],” Bayerle added.

In its letter, ACLI attempted an explanation for the degradation of mortality among the insured population aged 80 and above.

“There could be a few possible causes, including the impact of life settlements, and the possibility that the insured population is more likely to get access to better treatments earlier in life, so there may be more ‘survivors’ that will ultimately have shorter life expectancy,” wrote Bayerle and Colin Masterson, senior policy analyst at ACLI.

Long-term mortality trends

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute discussed long-term mortality trends during recent podcasts. Stubbornly high mortality continues to baffle actuaries five years after the COVID-19 pandemic. A late-2024 Swiss Re Research Institute report concluded that excess mortality is likely to persist for as long as another decade.

Excess mortality is a data point that insurers watch very closely. SOA researchers debated income inequality and disease trends, and the impact on mortality going forward. Several studies point to rising income inequality as a major worldwide trend.

It is also a major factor in mortality, said Al Klein, principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, during an SOA podcast.

“Higher-income individuals tend to have better education, better access to healthcare, engage in healthier behaviors, and live longer,” Klein said. “Lower-income individuals face more financial barriers and less access to care, have higher levels of stress and increased exposure to environmental hazards because of the neighborhoods they live in, and don’t live as long.”

Unequal access to healthcare is another concerning issue likely to drive adverse mortality trends, said Eric Pickett, actuary and chief content officer at Club Vita, a data analytics company.

“It’s not just about having health insurance,” Pickett said. “It’s also about health care utilization. Some populations, even if they have insurance, may not access care as frequently due to cost concerns, cultural barriers or lack of healthcare facilities in their area.”

Disease a driver

Chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular disease and cancer, will continue to be a “dominant driver” of mortality, SOA actuaries agreed, with trends influenced by both lifestyle choices and medical advances.

Cardiovascular disease remains the number one cause of death worldwide. But steady medical treatment progress combined with healthier eating and sharp declines in smoking drove down heart disease deaths for many years. That trend has since leveled out.

Diabetes, cancer and infectious diseases are the other big mortality drivers. In the latter case, Pickett noted, viruses can be “effectively managed” via vaccination programs. Or, should be, he noted.

“Widespread immunization has significantly reduced deaths from diseases like measles and polio,” Pickett said, “but vaccine hesitancy and new virus and viral mutations remain challenges for disease control.”

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